Increase in Elgin violence not all that initial reports made it seem

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According to FBI statistics released this week, Elgin, Joliet and Rockford experienced a rise in the number of murders and robberies in 2010 even while those crimes were going down in most parts of the country and other large cities in Illinois. Sun-Times Media~File Photo

ELGIN CRIMES

Violent Crimes

2009 — 346*

2010 — 355

Property Crimes

2009 — 2,244

2010 — 2,186

Murder

2009 — 3

2010 — 4

Forcible Rape

2009 — 97*

2010 — 86

Robbery

2009 — 79

2010 — 99

Aggravated Assault

2009 — 167

2010 — 166

Burglary

2009 — 445

2010 — 425

Theft

2009 — 1,683

2010 — 1,653

Vehicle Theft

2009 — 116

2010 — 108

Arson

2009 — 13

2010 — 7

Sources: FBI Preliminary Uniform Crime Statistics 2010; Elgin Police Department.

* — not listed for 2009 in FBI reports for Illinois

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Updated: September 29, 2011 12:44AM

ELGIN — Someone listening to Chicago TV newscasts Tuesday might have been led to believe Elgin was some kind of free-fire zone.

While crime went down nationwide, in most large cities in Illinois, and even in Chicago, violent crime was up in Rockford, Joliet and Elgin, according to the 2010 Preliminary Uniform Crime Statistics released Monday by the FBI.

Even the Chicago Sun-Times reported Tuesday that those three cities had posted “significant increases in violent crime” — Rockford up 10 percent from 2009 to 2010, Joliet up 9 percent and Elgin up 8 percent.

But not only did those stats somewhat compare apples to oranges, but they were based on such a small set of numbers that Elgin’s entire increase came about because the city saw one more murder and 20 more robberies — from three killings in 2009 to four last year, and from 79 robberies to 99.

Meanwhile, the number of rapes, burglaries, car thefts, miscellaneous thefts and arsons all went down in Elgin, while the number of what the FBI calls “aggravated assaults” remained virtually unchanged.

Statistics for cities and villages with fewer than 100,000 people are not yet available from the FBI.

“We’re concerned about any increase,” Deputy Police Chief Bob Beeter said Tuesday, but the overall rate of crimes in relation to Elgin’s population is at a 20- to 40-year low. And added together, the number of nonviolent crimes went down in 2010.

There are so few murders in a city Elgin’s size that just one more amounted to an increase of 33 percent, Beeter noted. But it appeared that Elgin’s total violent crimes went up by 8 percent mainly because the number of robberies went up by 20.

Because of discrepancies about how the term “forcible rape” was defined by different police departments prior to last year, the FBI stats do not even include the number of rapes reported in Illinois cities during 2009. In Elgin, Beeter said, that would have shown a drop, from 97 rapes in 2009 to 87 last year. So the overall change in Elgin’s violent crime rate would have been much less than the 8 percent quoted in other news reports.

Beeter also noted that there have been zero murders so far in 2011.

A 33 percent rise in murders is statistically insignificant when the total is three or four. But Beeter acknowledged that the 25 percent rise in robberies in a year, from 79 to 99, is a bit more disturbing.

However, most robberies in Elgin are not the clichéd masked man walking into a convenience store with a gun. More often they take place out on the street and often involve no weapon at all, Beeter said.

“Many of those street robberies involve what we call high-risk victims. You’ll have a person who cashes a paycheck, flashes around a lot of cash, then becomes intoxicated, walks down the street and someone rolls him. Or someone will be involved in a drug deal and the other party decides to rob him.”

He said the police force has become aware of this pattern and has increased patrols in areas frequented by such “high-risk” potential victims.

The number of burglaries decreased in Elgin by about the same number that the robberies went up — from 445 to 425. Although many of those involve home break-ins, Beeter said, a large number are cases of cars being broken into or, more often, simply entered while the vehicle was parked and unlocked. “These are largely crimes of opportunity,” he said. “The number might have gone down somewhat because people are getting the message that they need to lock up their cars.”

Beeter said he is unsure how many of the 87 and 97 Elgin rapes were incidents of a man attacking a woman who doesn’t know him, but he said that kind of attack is only a very small proportion of the total rape statistic. Rapes also include dating situations and molestation of young people by family members or other trusted adults, he noted.

In Chicago, violent crimes (murders, robberies and aggravated assaults) fell by 11 percent while total property crimes dropped slightly — less than 1 percent.

Nationwide, there was a 5.5 percent drop in violent crimes and a 2.8 percent decline in property crime.

No matter what the trends, crime-averse Elginites shouldn’t be too eager to trade their city for some others. Among the large Illinois cities, Rockford had the highest rate of violent crime per capita last year, with 14 violent crimes for every 1,000 residents. And while Rockford posted a nearly 10 percent drop in property crimes, it still had the highest property crime rate in the state — 50 for every 1,000 residents.

Elgin had just 3.2 violent crimes and 20 property crimes per 1,000 people.

By comparison, Chicago had 10 violent crimes (three times Elgin’s level) and 42 property crimes (twice Elgin’s level) per 1,000 people. Aurora had 3.6 violent crimes and 22 property crimes per 1,000, both slightly higher than Elgin’s rate.

Sun-Times Media writer Art Golub contributed to this story.